Superforecasting organisational risk

Collective intelligence


Developed as part of the Centre for Collective Intelligence Design at Nesta.

I designed and managed an internal crowdsourced forecasting program called Nestadamus, to help Nesta more accurately forecast and prepare for organisational risk. We are using the wisdom of the crowd, ie Nesta employees in order to: increase our accuracy in assessing and forecasting risks; provide a forum that gives everyone an impactful way to voice their perspective; uncover blindspots, and establish a process with feedback and accountability for risk assessment.

Crowdsourced forecasting is the ongoing collection of predictions (typically in the form of a probability) from a large, diverse group of people, which are then aggregated into a “crowd” or “consensus” forecast about a future event. This consensus probability can be tracked and used as ongoing insights for decision-making. Groups of super-forecasters have been found to be more accurate  than experts while similar efforts have been proven repeatedly in the public and private sector around the world. 

We need a dream-world to discover the features
of the real world we think we inhabit.


I’m a London based strategic designer, and researcher. I’m interested in the boundary-muddlings of information, computation, minds and nature. My email is always open to ethersamplers, epistemic humorists, and ungoogleable souls.